The election was unlike any other in recent memory for a host of reasons: its too-close-to-call nature, the shock not-quite-as-close exit poll on Thursday night, Jeremy Paxman ditching his fearsome Newsnight demeanour to dabble in wit on comedy panel shows.
The exit polls astounded, showing the Tories stretching ahead to within touching distance of the post, while the SNP far exceeded already high expectations. It was set to be a tense night as we waited to see how accurate those polls would be.
Towards the start of the marathon count, former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown confidently dismissed the exit poll and said he’d eat his hat live on television should it come to pass. I can only imagine he’s now picking out which condiments might best accompany his cap.
The incredulity that stemmed from what people were led to expect versus the exit poll clanger demonstrates the folly and potential danger of visualising what’s down the road and assuming that that is how things are going to turn out.
Illustration by Ben Jennings
The Tories’ performance overall was a true rabbit-out-of-hat moment not seen since last year’s Budget. But the celebration will be short lived given what lies ahead.
Even if the main parties’ manifesto pension pledges were etched into stone, we cannot know for sure the nature and timing of any changes and how they might interact with the status quo.
The clear message sent from Scotland coupled with a referendum on EU membership threatens to implode the UK, potentially reducing the power and relevance of its voice on the world stage.
Boris Johnson’s talk of a more federal approach to governing the UK’s regions may be enough to mollify the Scots. But it might not.
If we see another referendum there, all the conjecture – and genuine concerns – about the risks of trying to disentangle the pension systems on either side of Hadrian’s Wall will resurface.
If the election was anything to go by, I am not convinced the UK would survive another Scottish vote.
Academics and various business bodies will have to dust off their research from last year, to guide on the dangers of a separation for the UK’s financial services. But they will have to argue their case more fervently than before.
Maxine Kelly is editor at Pensions Expert. You can follow her on Twitter @MaxineEK and the team @pensions_expert.
