Emerging market advocates are finding that where there were once believers, there are now sceptics, cynics and outright deserters.
That is my slightly overegged paraphrase of this year’s investor sentiment survey by Create Research and Principal Global Investors of 704 pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, consultants and asset managers.
You can see five key charts from the report over at the blog. The proportion labelling themselves "believers" dropped dramatically to 20 per cent this year from 38 per cent at the previous survey in 2012.
Frontier markets, particularly in Africa, are now predicted by investors to provide the best returns over the next three years. Are we seeing the moment when frontiers start to dominate the narrative? Will Ghana triumph over Mexico?
It has only been a month since I last posed the question of when institutional investment in the world's second-largest continent will tip from outside bet to mainstay in scheme portfolios.
The ‘scramble for Africa’ does seem to have some weight behind it, with Create’s figures showing 45 per cent of respondents saying the region is most likely to offer the best returns over the next three years, putting it second only to the US, tipped by 47 per cent of those surveyed.
Illustration by Ben Jennings
The Bric constituents fared worse, with Brazil (15 per cent), India (14 per cent) and Russia (8 per cent) demonstrating the collective eye of long-term investors has moved further afield. China does better, picked by one in three respondents (34 per cent).
Going with the flow holds as much potential discomfort as it does comfort. And as sector advocate Jerome Booth writes in his Emerging Markets In An Upside Down World, “the prejudices of some create opportunities... for others”.
The acquaintance that investors have built up with emerging markets has revealed their downsides, their risks and their false promises, as well as their strengths and areas of value.
Unless you are a seasoned investor in frontier markets like the Royal County of Berkshire Pension Fund, no doubt the promises of return and diversification are more readily apparent than the real risks, which will take longer to reveal themselves.
Ian Smith is editor of Pensions Expert. You can follow him on Twitter @iankmsmith and the team @pensions_expert.